Economics

Comparing two samples of data, we observe a change in the distribution of an outcome variable. In the presence of multiple explanatory variables, how much of the change can be explained by each possible cause? We develop a new estimation strategy that, given a causal model, combines regression and re-weighting methods to quantify the contribution of each causal mechanism. Our proposed methodology is multiply

Question: What is the association between enrollment in a subscription program that offers Amazon Prime members access to 60 common generic prescription drugs for a $5 monthly fee with medication refills, days’ supply and out-of-pocket costs? Findings: In this cohort study comparing 5,003 enrollees to 5,137 controls, before and after enrollment, subscription program enrollment was associated with statistically

The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed. However, SCM faces challenges in accurately predicting postintervention potential outcomes had, contrary to fact, the treatment been withheld, when the pre-intervention period is short or the post-intervention period is long. To address these issues, we

We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but

Online A/B tests have become an indispensable tool across all the technology industry: if performed correctly, “online” experiments can inform effective decision making and product development. It should therefore not be surprising that Gupta et al. [2019] estimates that online businesses alone collectively run hundreds of thousands of experiments annually. Modern online experiments are often run in marketplaces