From flash density to field reliability: A population-weighted distance effect model for lightning-induced surge exposure characterization

Lightning-induced surge voltages constitute a primary failure mechanism for outdoor electronic equipment deployed in residential and commercial environments. This paper presents a physics-based Distance Effect model that establishes the quantitative relationship between lightning-induced voltage magnitude and the spatial volume fraction capable of producing that voltage level, yielding an inverse cubic law (O ∝ Ui−3, where O denotes the spatial occurrence ratio and Ui the induced voltage magnitude). The model derives from the classical Rusck formulation with correction factors for finite conductor length and structural shielding, and is subsequently integrated with regional lightning density data and population distribution analytics to develop a generalized, data-driven framework for surge exposure characterization. Utilizing 2024 U.S. National Lightning Detection Network data across all 50 states, the paper demonstrates the application of this framework through population-weighted analytical calculations. The methodology transforms surge analysis from empirical estimation into a rigorous, physics-backed analytical approach, providing a generalizable methodology for surge exposure characterization applicable across diverse deployment scenarios. Validation against IEEE C62.41.1 empirical data confirms the model's predictive accuracy, while the population-weighted aggregation methodology demonstrates how spatial occurrence models can be combined with demographic data to produce representative national-scale characterizations.