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  • Nowcasting recession risk
    Francesco Furno, Domenico Giannone
    IAAE 2023, Research Methods and Applications on Macroeconomic Forecasting
    2024
    We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but
    Economics
  • Adaptive experimentation when you can’t experiment
    Yao Zhao, Kwang-Sung Jun, Bibek Adhikari, Tanner Fiez, Lalit Jain
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    In this study, we aim to present an effective methodology tailored for companies interested in implement-ing adaptive experimentation in scenarios characterized by potential selection biases or endogeneity. To illustrate our approach, we begin by delving into the realm of online experimentation. Online platforms routinely conduct thousands of A/B tests annually to gain insights into the impact of user-facing
    Economics
  • Efficient switchback experiments via multiple randomization designs
    Lorenzo Masoero, Guido Imbens, Thomas Richardson, James McQueen, Suhas Vijaykumar, Ido Rosen
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Online A/B tests have become an indispensable tool across all the technology industry: if performed correctly, “online” experiments can inform effective decision making and product development. It should therefore not be surprising that Gupta et al. [2019] estimates that online businesses alone collectively run hundreds of thousands of experiments annually. Modern online experiments are often run in marketplaces
    Economics
  • Cross-unit spillovers in A/B testing: Empirical evidence from ads
    Ronak Jain, Stefan Hut, Mahnaz Islam, Yao Pan
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) are widely used across Amazon to causally estimate impacts of proposed feature changes, in order to make data-driven launch decisions. A key element of experimental design is the level of randomization, and the choice often relies on the cross-unit interaction structure. For instance, in the context of advertiser experiments, a treatment may affect the outcome of control
    Economics
  • Value of stratification in cluster-randomized experiments
    Stefan Hut, Blake Mason, Mahnaz Islam, Lledo Esquerra
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    There are many experimental settings that may suffer from cross-unit (customers, seller, advertiser, etc.) spillovers, for instance through network effects. Such effects introduce bias and prevent the experimenter from drawing trustworthy insights on the data. One approach to dealing with such spillovers is to group units into clusters and randomize treatment status at the cluster level. Examples of clusters
    Economics
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Senior Economist, GM Forecast and Planning
LU, Luxembourg
At Global Mile Expansion team, our vision is to become the carrier of choice for all of our Selling Partners cross-border shipping needs, offering complete set of end to end cross border solutions from key manufacturing hubs to footprint countries supporting business who use Amazon to grow their business globally. As we expand, the need for comprehensive business insight and robust demand forecasting to aid decision making on asset utilization especially where we know demand will be variable becomes vital, as well as operational excellence. We are building business models involving large amounts of data and Macro economic inputs to produce the robust forecast to help the operational excellence and continue improving the customer experience. We are looking for an experienced economist who can apply innovative modelling techniques to real-world problems, and convert it to highly business-impacting solutions. Key job responsibilities - Experienced in using mathematical and statistical approach to create new, scalable solutions for business problems - Analyze and extract relevant information from business data to help automate and optimize key processes - Design, develop and evaluate highly innovative models for predictive learning - Establish scalable, efficient, automated processes for large scale data analyses, model development, model validation and model implementation - Research and implement statistical approaches to understand the business long-term and short-term trend and support the strategies
Economist II, Device Economics
US, WA, Seattle
Device Economics is looking for an economist experienced in causal inference, empirical industrial organization, forecasting, and scaled systems to work on business problems to advance critical resource allocation and pricing decisions in the Amazon Devices org. Output will be included in scaled systems to automate existing processes and to maximize business and customer objectives. Amazon Devices designs and builds Amazon first-party consumer electronics products to delight and engage customers. Amazon Devices represents a highly complex space with 100+ products across several product categories (e-readers [Kindle], tablets [Fire Tablets], smart speakers and audio assistants [Echo], wifi routers [eero], and video doorbells and cameras [Ring and Blink]), for sale both online and in offline retailers in several regions. The space becomes more complex with dynamic product offering with new product launches and new marketplace launches. The Device Economics team leads in analyzing these complex marketplace dynamics to enable science-driven decision making in the Devices org. Device Economics achieves this by combining economic expertise with macroeconomic trends, and including both in scientific applications for use by internal analysts, to provide deep understanding of customer preferences. Our team’s outputs inform product development decisions, investments in future product categories, product pricing and promotion, and bundling across complementary product lines. We have achieved substantial impact on the Devices business, and will achieve more. Device Economics seeks an economist adept in measuring customer preferences and behaviors with proven capacity to innovate, scale measurement, and drive rigor. The candidate must be passionate about advancing science for business and customer impact.
Economist, Stores Economics and Science (SEAS)
US, WA, Seattle
The Stores Economics and Science (SEAS) team is an interdisciplinary science and economics team whose mission is to solve high-risk, high-return problems for the Stores organization. We leverage frontier science, partner with teams across Amazon, and learn from the tools, experience, and perspectives of others. Our work spans rapid responses to pressing leadership questions, collaborative partnerships to help other teams achieve their goals, and multi-year scientific bets with large upside potential. We are looking for an economist who can use data-driven modeling and analyses to make the right trade-offs and solve impactful business problems. We seek creative thinkers who can combine a strong economic toolbox with a desire to learn from others, and who know how to execute and deliver on big ideas. In this role, you will contribute to SEAS' mission in two key ways. First, you will leverage your economic expertise to help design and validate scientific solutions for pressing business challenges. This will involve applying advanced analytical techniques, conducting rigorous data analysis, and proactively proposing high-impact initiatives that can be rapidly prototyped and scaled. Secondly, you will play a crucial role in translating complex economic models and insights into actionable recommendations that directly inform leadership decisions across the organization. This will require strong communication skills to effectively collaborate with cross-functional partners and drive meaningful change. Responsibilities - Collaborate with cross-functional partner teams to understand their challenges and translate them into rigorous economic frameworks that can be addressed through data analysis, modeling, and experimentation. - Own the end-to-end development of economic models and analyses, including conducting necessary data gathering, analysis, and validation to drive actionable insights, and - Effectively communicate your economic findings, models, and proposed solutions to senior business stakeholders, incorporating their feedback to refine your work.
Economist II, Advertising, Demand Generation, Marketing Effectiveness
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon Advertising is one of Amazon's fastest growing and most profitable businesses, responsible for defining and delivering a collection of advertising products that drive discovery and sales. Our products and solutions are strategically important to enable our Retail and Marketplace businesses to drive long-term growth. We deliver billions of ad impressions and millions of clicks and break fresh ground in product and technical innovations every day! The Advertiser and Marketing Performance team is responsible for driving accurate and scalable measurement processes that will enable Marketing and Program Managers to accelerate continuous improvement across our marketing channels and advancing Advertiser performance at scale by focusing on insights and analytics that unlock Advertiser success. As an economist on this team, you will: -Apply your expertise in causal modeling and ML to develop systems that describe how Amazon’s marketing campaigns impact customers’ actions -Design, execute, and analyze experiments to verify the efficacy of different scientific solutions in production -Establishing scalable, efficient, automated processes for large scale data analyses, model development, model validation and model implementation -Work with marketing leadership to align our measurement plan with business strategy -Write code (Python, R, Scala, SQL, etc.) to obtain, manipulate, and analyze data -Apply statistical and machine learning knowledge to specific business problems and data. -Conduct written and verbal presentations to share insights to audiences of varying levels of technical sophistication.
Senior Economist, Device Economics
US, VA, Arlington
Device Economics is looking for a senior economist experienced in causal inference, machine learning, empirical industrial organization, and scaled systems to work on business problems to advance critical resource allocation and pricing decisions in the Amazon Devices org. Senior roles lead vision setting, methods innovation, and act as thought leaders to Devices finance and business executives. Output will be included in scaled systems to automate existing processes and to maximize business and customer objectives. Amazon Devices designs and builds Amazon first-party consumer electronics products to delight and engage customers. Amazon Devices represents a highly complex space with 100+ products across several product categories (e-readers [Kindle], tablets [Fire Tablets], smart speakers and audio assistants [Echo], wifi routers [eero], and video doorbells and cameras [Ring and Blink]), for sale both online and in offline retailers in several regions. The space becomes more complex with dynamic product offering with new product launches and new marketplace launches. The Device Economics team leads in analyzing these complex marketplace dynamics to enable science-driven decision making in the Devices org. Device Economics achieves this through scientific applications that provide deep understanding of customer preferences. Our team’s outputs inform product development decisions, investments in future product categories, and product pricing and promotion. We have achieved substantial impact on the Devices business, and will achieve more. Device Economics seeks an experienced economist adept in measuring customer preferences and behaviors with proven capacity to innovate, scale measurement, drive rigor, and mentor talent. The candidate will work with Amazon Devices science leadership to refine science roadmaps, models, and priorities for innovation and simplification, and advance adoption of insights to influence important resource allocation and prioritization decisions. Effective communication skills (verbal and written) are required to ensure success of this collaboration. The candidate must be passionate about advancing science for business and customer impact.
Economist, Prime Economics
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon Prime is looking for a talented Economist to help manage our ever growing information needs and support analysis of increasingly complex business questions. At Amazon Prime, understanding customer data is paramount to our success in providing customers with relevant and enticing benefits such as fast free shipping, instant videos and music, in an expanding number of international marketplaces. The Economist role occupies a unique space at the intersection of technology, machine-learning, econometrics, large-scale scientific computing, social science, and product management. As an Economist within Amazon Prime, you will build a foundational econometrics used to help Prime plan company-wide investments in Prime. To do so, you will work closely with a team of structural and theoretical econometricians, applied and research scientists, and business and software development teams, along with Amazon Scholars (leading academic scientists from major universities). You will propose and estimate novel statistical and econometric models at the scientific frontier of time series statistics, structural econometrics, and machine learning. You will directly inform large-scale strategic decisions about how to improve the Prime membership, in partnership with senior scientific and business leaders. You will serve as a science leader across our worldwide science teams (now spanning pods within multiple marketplaces). You will utilize and enhance massively parallelized scientific computing paradigms, in partnership with our scientific software teams. This position is unique in its exposure to senior members of the Prime team and other Amazon business units. The successful candidate will have demonstrated capacity for successfully building, estimating, and defending causal statistical models using software such as R, Python, Scala, or the equivalent, as well as how to create production-quality scientific software. Knowledge of SQL, machine learning, and large-scale scientific computing using distributed computing infrastructures such as Spark-Scala or PySpark would be a plus. The role will provide the opportunity to have a large strategic, world-wide impact on the customer experiences of Prime members. It can scale as both a large-scope individual contributor role, or as a manager role, depending on candidate skillset and career aspirations. Location options for this position include Seattle, WA, Chicago, IL, and Arlington, VA.
Economist, AWS
US, VA, Arlington
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is seeking a highly skilled Economist to help shape the future of our company and enhance the success of our customers. With AWS generating approximately $100B in annual revenue, we are expanding rapidly and need to identify the interventions that are most effective in helping both existing and potential customers throughout their cloud- adoption journey. As part of this role, you will apply advanced econometrics and machine learning techniques to determine which interventions yield the best outcomes across different stages of the customer journey, from early engagement to mature customer relationships. Your work will center on applying causal inference and machine learning to large, complex datasets, uncovering actionable insights that directly influence AWS's strategic decisions. You will be instrumental in developing scalable models that deepen our understanding of customer behavior and quantify the impact of marketing and sales initiatives. By working closely with key business stakeholders, you’ll ensure that AWS consistently delivers the most effective solutions tailored to the unique needs of our diverse and growing customer base. Key job responsibilities -Apply your expertise in econometrics and machine learning to evaluate the effectiveness of AWS interventions and customer engagement strategies. -Identify patterns and opportunities in customer data to suggest new interventions, such as credit offers, discounts, and service recommendations. -Formalize and document research processes, ensuring scientific rigor and knowledge sharing within Amazon’s science community. -Communicate insights and findings effectively to business leaders across various levels of the organization, influencing strategic decision-making.
Economist - Marketing Measurement
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon’s Customer Behavior Analytics org is looking for an Economist to spearhead the rapid growth of our Marketing Measurement solutions. The team focuses on building scalable ML and causal inference solutions to estimate the effectiveness of Amazon marketing efforts and provide actionable insights to the various marketing teams within Amazon. We work closely with business stakeholders and strive to continuously produce tangible impact on the company’s strategic and tactical planning and operations. A successful candidate will be a self-starter, comfortable with ambiguity, able to think big and be creative, while still paying careful attention to detail. You will apply your econometrics expertise to identify opportunities for further research and to provide insights that drive larger initiatives. You should be able to translate how data represents the customer journey, be comfortable dealing with large and complex data sets, and have experience using machine/deep learning at scale to solve business problems. You should have strong analytical and communication skills, be able to work with product managers and software teams to define key business questions and work with the analytics team to solve them. You will join a highly collaborative and diverse working environment that will empower you to shape the future of Amazon marketing, as well allow you to be part of the large science community within the Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) organization. Key job responsibilities The main responsibilities for this position include: - Apply your expertise in causal modeling and ML to develop systems that describe how Amazon’s marketing campaigns impact customers’ actions - Own the end-to-end development of novel causal inference models that address the most pressing needs of our business stakeholders and help guide their future actions - Improve upon and simplify our existing solutions and frameworks - Review and audit modeling processes and results from other economists/scientists, both junior and senior - Work with marketing leadership to align our measurement plan with business strategy - Formalize assumptions about how our models are expected to behave and explain why they are reasonable - Identify new opportunities that are suggested by the data insights - Bring a department-wide perspective into decision making - Develop and document scientific research to be shared with the greater science community at Amazon About the team The Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) organization owns Amazon’s insights pipeline, from data collection to deep analytics. We aspire to be the place where Amazon teams come for answers, a trusted source for data and insights that empower our systems and business leaders to make better decisions. Our outputs shape Amazon product and marketing teams’ decisions and thus how Amazon customers see, use, and value their experience.
Sr. Economist, DSI
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where people can find and discover anything they want to buy online. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Are you seeking an environment where you can drive innovation? Do you want to apply learning techniques and advanced mathematical modeling to solve real world problems? Do you want to play a key role in the future of Amazon's Retail business? This job for you! The Customer Behavior Analytics (CBA) team at Amazon is responsible for the architecture, design, implementation of tools used to understand customer behavior and value generation for all Amazon programs. Our vision is to ensure that every decision at Amazon is customer-obsessed and maximizes long-term free cash flow (LTFCF). To achieve this we build the best, unbiased and most trusted measures of incremental customer long-term value and make them universally adopted as the company standard for customer-obsessed decisions. Come and join us! Amazon’s CBA team is looking for Economists, who can work at the intersection of economics, statistics and machine learning; and leverage the power of big data to solve complex problems like long-term causal effect estimation. Key job responsibilities Economists at Amazon are expected to work directly with other Economists and senior management on key business problems in retail, international retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, and operations. Amazon economists will apply the frontier of economic thinking to market design, pricing, forecasting, program evaluation, online advertising and other areas. You will build econometric models, using our world class data systems, and apply economic theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. Economists at Amazon will be expected to develop new techniques to process large data sets, build trust in the techniques with rigorous science and validation, address quantitative problems, and contribute to design of automated systems around the company.
Economist, Device Economics
US, VA, Arlington
Device Economics is looking for an economist experienced in causal inference, empirical industrial organization, forecasting, and scaled systems to work on business problems to advance critical resource allocation and pricing decisions in the Amazon Devices org. Output will be included in scaled systems to automate existing processes and to maximize business and customer objectives. Amazon Devices designs and builds Amazon first-party consumer electronics products to delight and engage customers. Amazon Devices represents a highly complex space with 100+ products across several product categories (e-readers [Kindle], tablets [Fire Tablets], smart speakers and audio assistants [Echo], wifi routers [eero], and video doorbells and cameras [Ring and Blink]), for sale both online and in offline retailers in several regions. The space becomes more complex with dynamic product offering with new product launches and new marketplace launches. The Device Economics team leads in analyzing these complex marketplace dynamics to enable science-driven decision making in the Devices org. Device Economics achieves this by combining economic expertise with macroeconomic trends, and including both in scientific applications for use by internal analysts, to provide deep understanding of customer preferences. Our team’s outputs inform product development decisions, investments in future product categories, product pricing and promotion, and bundling across complementary product lines. We have achieved substantial impact on the Devices business, and will achieve more. Device Economics seeks an economist adept in measuring customer preferences and behaviors with proven capacity to innovate, scale measurement, and drive rigor. The candidate must be passionate about advancing science for business and customer impact.
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