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  • Proximal causal inference for synthetic control with surrogates
    Jizhou Liu, Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen, Carlos Varjao
    AISTATS 2024
    2024
    The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed. However, SCM faces challenges in accurately predicting postintervention potential outcomes had, contrary to fact, the treatment been withheld, when the pre-intervention period is short or the post-intervention period is long. To address these issues, we
    Economics
  • Nowcasting recession risk
    Francesco Furno, Domenico Giannone
    IAAE 2023, Research Methods and Applications on Macroeconomic Forecasting
    2024
    We propose a simple yet robust framework to nowcast recession risk at a monthly frequency in both the United States and the Euro Area. Our nowcast leverages both macroeconomic and financial conditions, and is available the first business day after the reference month closes. In particular, we argue that financial conditions are not only useful to predict future downturns–as emphasized by the existing literature–but
    Economics
  • Adaptive experimentation when you can’t experiment
    Yao Zhao, Kwang-Sung Jun, Bibek Adhikari, Tanner Fiez, Lalit Jain
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    In this study, we aim to present an effective methodology tailored for companies interested in implement-ing adaptive experimentation in scenarios characterized by potential selection biases or endogeneity. To illustrate our approach, we begin by delving into the realm of online experimentation. Online platforms routinely conduct thousands of A/B tests annually to gain insights into the impact of user-facing
    Economics
  • Efficient switchback experiments via multiple randomization designs
    Lorenzo Masoero, Guido Imbens, Thomas Richardson, James McQueen, Suhas Vijaykumar, Ido Rosen
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Online A/B tests have become an indispensable tool across all the technology industry: if performed correctly, “online” experiments can inform effective decision making and product development. It should therefore not be surprising that Gupta et al. [2019] estimates that online businesses alone collectively run hundreds of thousands of experiments annually. Modern online experiments are often run in marketplaces
    Economics
  • Cross-unit spillovers in A/B testing: Empirical evidence from ads
    Ronak Jain, Stefan Hut, Mahnaz Islam, Yao Pan
    2023 Conference on Digital Experimentation @ MIT (CODE@MIT)
    2023
    Randomized Control Trials (RCTs) are widely used across Amazon to causally estimate impacts of proposed feature changes, in order to make data-driven launch decisions. A key element of experimental design is the level of randomization, and the choice often relies on the cross-unit interaction structure. For instance, in the context of advertiser experiments, a treatment may affect the outcome of control
    Economics
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Economist, PXT Central Science
US, WA, Seattle
The People eXperience and Technology Central Science Team (PXTCS) uses economics, behavioral science, statistics, and machine learning to proactively identify mechanisms and process improvements which simultaneously improve Amazon and the lives, wellbeing, and the value of work to Amazonians. We are an interdisciplinary team that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop and deliver solutions that measurably achieve this goal. We are looking for economists who are able to apply economic methods to address business problems. The ideal candidate will work with engineers and computer scientists to estimate models and algorithms on large scale data, design pilots and measure their impact, and transform successful prototypes into improved policies and programs at scale. We are looking for creative thinkers who can combine a strong technical economic toolbox with a desire to learn from other disciplines, and who know how to execute and deliver on big ideas as part of an interdisciplinary technical team. Ideal candidates will work in a team setting with individuals from diverse disciplines and backgrounds. They will work with teammates to develop scientific models and conduct the data analysis, modeling, and experimentation that is necessary for estimating and validating models. They will work closely with engineering teams to develop scalable data resources to support rapid insights, and take successful models and findings into production as new products and services. They will be customer-centric and will communicate scientific approaches and findings to business leaders, listening to and incorporate their feedback, and delivering successful scientific solutions. Key job responsibilities Use reduced-form causal analysis and/or structural economic modeling methods to evaluate the impact of policies on employee outcomes, and examine how external labor market and economic conditions impact Amazon's ability to hire and retain talent. A day in the life Work with teammates to apply economic methods to business problems. This might include identifying the appropriate research questions, writing code to implement a DID analysis or estimate a structural model, or writing and presenting a document with findings to business leaders. Our economists also collaborate with partner teams throughout the process, from understanding their challenges, to developing a research agenda that will address those challenges, to help them implement solutions. About the team We are a multidisciplinary team that combines the talents of science and engineering to develop innovative solutions to make Amazon Earth's Best Employer. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Seattle, WA, USA
Senior Economist, Amazon
US, WA, Seattle
The Global Cross-Channel and Cross- Category Marketing (XCM) org are seeking an experienced Economist to join our team. XCM’s mission is to be the most measurably effective and creatively breakthrough marketing organization in the world in order to strengthen the brand, grow the business, and reduce cost for Amazon overall. We achieve this through scaled campaigning in support of brands, categories, and audiences which aim to create the maximum incremental impact for Amazon as a whole by driving the Amazon flywheel. This is a high impact role with the opportunities to lead the development of state-of-the-art, scalable models to measure the efficacy and effectiveness of a new marketing channel. In this critical role, you will leverage your deep expertise in causal inference to design and implement robust measurement frameworks that provide actionable insights to drive strategic business decisions. Key Responsibilities: - Develop advanced econometric and statistical models to rigorously evaluate the causal incremental impact of marketing campaigns on a new marketing channel - Collaborate cross-functionally with marketing, product, data science and engineering teams to define the measurement strategy and ensure alignment on objectives. - Leverage large, complex datasets to uncover hidden patterns and trends, extracting meaningful insights that inform marketing optimization and investment decisions. - Work with engineers, applied scientists and product managers to automate the model in production environment. - Stay up-to-date with the latest research and methodological advancements in causal inference, causal ML and experiment design to continuously enhance the team's capabilities. - Effectively communicate analysis findings, recommendations, and their business implications to key stakeholders, including senior leadership. - Mentor and guide junior economists, fostering a culture of analytical excellence and innovation. Qualifications: - Advanced degree (Ph.D. preferred) in Economics, Statistics, or a related quantitative field. - Minimum 7+ years of relevant experience in applying causal inference techniques, such as double machine learning, synthetic control, difference-in-differences, instrumental variables, and randomized experiments. - Proven track record of developing and implementing sophisticated, scalable models to measure marketing effectiveness and attribution. - Expertise in programming languages (e.g., R, Python) and proficiency in working with large, complex datasets. - Strong problem-solving skills, ability to think critically, and a keen eye for detail. - Excellent communication and presentation skills, with the ability to translate technical analyses into actionable business insights. - Experience in a fast-paced, data-driven environment, with the flexibility to adapt to changing business needs. A day in the life We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: New York City, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Santa Monica, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA
Economist, Economic Decision Science
GB, London
Economic Decision Science is a central science team working across a variety of topics in the EU Stores business and beyond. We work closely EU business leaders to drive change at Amazon. We focus on solving long-term, ambiguous and challenging problems, while providing advisory support to help solve short-term business pain points. Key topics include pricing, product selection, delivery speed, profitability, and customer experience. We tackle these issues by building novel econometric models, machine learning systems, and high-impact experiments which we integrate into business, financial, and system-level decision making. Our work is highly collaborative and we regularly partner with EU- and US-based interdisciplinary teams. We are looking for a Senior Economist who is able to provide structure around complex business problems, hone those complex problems into specific, scientific questions, and test those questions to generate insights. The ideal candidate will work with various science, engineering, operations and analytics teams to estimate models and algorithms on large scale data, design pilots and measure their impact, and transform successful prototypes into improved policies and programs at scale. If you have an entrepreneurial spirit, you know how to deliver results fast, and you have a deeply quantitative, highly innovative approach to solving problems, and long for the opportunity to build pioneering solutions to challenging problems, we want to talk to you. Key job responsibilities - Provide data-driven guidance and recommendations on strategic questions facing the EU Retail leadership - Scope, design and implement version-zero (V0) models and experiments to kickstart new initiatives, thinking, and drive system-level changes across Amazon - Build a long-term research agenda to understand, break down, and tackle the most stubborn and ambiguous business challenges - Influence business leaders and work closely with other scientists at Amazon to deliver measurable progress and change We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: London, GBR
Principal Economist, Topline Forecasting
US, WA, Bellevue
Where will Amazon's growth come from in the next year? What about over the next five? Which product lines are poised to quintuple in size? Are we investing enough in our infrastructure, or too much? How do our customers react to changes in prices, product selection, or delivery times? These are among the most important questions at Amazon today. The Topline Forecasting team in the Supply Chain Optimization Technologies (SCOT) group is looking for innovative, passionate and results-oriented Principal Economist to provide thought-leadership to help answer these questions. You will have an opportunity to own the long-run outlook for Amazon’s global consumer business and shape strategic decisions at the highest level. The successful candidate will be able to formalize problem definitions from ambiguous requirements, build econometric models using Amazon’s world-class data systems, and develop cutting-edge solutions for non-standard problems. Key job responsibilities - You understand the state-of-the-art in time series and econometric modeling. - You apply econometric tools and theory to solve business problems in a fast moving environment. - You excel at extracting insights and correct interpretations from data using advanced modeling techniques. - You communicate insights in a digestible manner to senior leaders in Finance and Operations within the company. - You are able to anticipate future business challenges and key questions, and have the ability to design modeling solutions to tackle them. - You have broad influence over the Topline team’s scientific research agenda and deliverables. - You contribute to the broader Econ research community in Amazon. - You advise other economists on scientific best-practices and raise the bar of research. - You will actively mentor other scientists and contribute to their career development. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Bellevue, WA, USA | New York, NY, USA
Economist, Amazon
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists at Amazon partner closely with senior management, business stakeholders, scientist and engineers, and economist leadership to solve key business problems ranging from Amazon Web Services, Kindle, Prime, inventory planning, international retail, third party merchants, search, pricing, labor and employment planning, effective benefits (health, retirement, etc.) and beyond. Amazon Economists build econometric models using our world class data systems and apply approaches from a variety of skillsets – applied macro/time series, applied micro, econometric theory, empirical IO, empirical health, labor, public economics and related fields are all highly valued skillsets at Amazon. You will work in a fast moving environment to solve business problems as a member of either a cross-functional team embedded within a business unit or a central science and economics organization. You will be expected to develop techniques that apply econometrics to large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to the design of automated systems around the company. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Seattle, WA, USA
Economist
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists at Amazon partner closely with senior management, business stakeholders, scientist and engineers, and economist leadership to solve key business problems ranging from Amazon Web Services, Kindle, Prime, inventory planning, international retail, third party merchants, search, pricing, labor and employment planning, effective benefits (health, retirement, etc.) and beyond. Amazon Economists build econometric models using our world class data systems and apply approaches from a variety of skillsets – applied macro/time series, applied micro, econometric theory, empirical IO, empirical health, labor, public economics and related fields are all highly valued skillsets at Amazon. You will work in a fast moving environment to solve business problems as a member of either a cross-functional team embedded within a business unit or a central science and economics organization. You will be expected to develop techniques that apply econometrics to large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to the design of automated systems around the company. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Arlington, VA, USA | Bellevue, WA, USA | Boston, MA, USA | Los Angeles, CA, USA | New York, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Economist
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists at Amazon partner closely with senior management, business stakeholders, scientist and engineers, and economist leadership to solve key business problems ranging from Amazon Web Services, Kindle, Prime, inventory planning, international retail, third party merchants, search, pricing, labor and employment planning, effective benefits (health, retirement, etc.) and beyond. Amazon Economists build econometric models using our world class data systems and apply approaches from a variety of skillsets – applied macro/time series, applied micro, econometric theory, empirical IO, empirical health, labor, public economics and related fields are all highly valued skillsets at Amazon. You will work in a fast moving environment to solve business problems as a member of either a cross-functional team embedded within a business unit or a central science and economics organization. You will be expected to develop techniques that apply econometrics to large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to the design of automated systems around the company. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Arlington, VA, USA | Bellevue, WA, USA | Boston, MA, USA | Los Angeles, CA, USA | New York, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Senior Economist
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists at Amazon partner closely with senior management, business stakeholders, scientist and engineers, and economist leadership to solve key business problems ranging from Amazon Web Services, Kindle, Prime, inventory planning, international retail, third party merchants, search, pricing, labor and employment planning, effective benefits (health, retirement, etc.) and beyond. Amazon Economists build econometric models using our world class data systems and apply approaches from a variety of skillsets – applied macro/time series, applied micro, econometric theory, empirical IO, empirical health, labor, public economics and related fields are all highly valued skillsets at Amazon. You will work in a fast moving environment to solve business problems as a member of either a cross-functional team embedded within a business unit or a central science and economics organization. You will be expected to develop techniques that apply econometrics to large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to the design of automated systems around the company. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Arlington, VA, USA | Bellevue, WA, USA | Boston, MA, USA | Los Angeles, CA, USA | New York, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Senior Economist
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists at Amazon partner closely with senior management, business stakeholders, scientist and engineers, and economist leadership to solve key business problems ranging from Amazon Web Services, Kindle, Prime, inventory planning, international retail, third party merchants, search, pricing, labor and employment planning, effective benefits (health, retirement, etc.) and beyond. Amazon Economists build econometric models using our world class data systems and apply approaches from a variety of skillsets – applied macro/time series, applied micro, econometric theory, empirical IO, empirical health, labor, public economics and related fields are all highly valued skillsets at Amazon. You will work in a fast moving environment to solve business problems as a member of either a cross-functional team embedded within a business unit or a central science and economics organization. You will be expected to develop techniques that apply econometrics to large data sets, address quantitative problems, and contribute to the design of automated systems around the company. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Arlington, VA, USA | Bellevue, WA, USA | Boston, MA, USA | Los Angeles, CA, USA | New York, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA
Economist
US, WA, Seattle
Amazon.com strives to be Earth's most customer-centric company where customers can shop in our stores to find and discover anything they want to buy. We hire the world's brightest minds, offering them a fast paced, technologically sophisticated and friendly work environment. Economists in the Forecasting, Macroeconomics & Finance field document, interpret and forecast Amazon business dynamics. This track is well suited for economists adept at combining cutting edge times-series statistical methods with strong economic analysis and intuition. This track could be a good fit for candidates with research experience in: macroeconometrics and/or empirical macroeconomics; international macroeconomics; time-series econometrics; forecasting; financial econometrics and/or empirical finance; and the use of micro and panel data to improve and validate traditional aggregate models. Economists at Amazon are expected to work directly with our senior management and scientists from other fields on key business problems faced across Amazon, including retail, cloud computing, third party merchants, search, Kindle, streaming video, and operations. The Forecasting, Macroeconomics & Finance field utilizes methods at the frontier of economics to develop formal models to understand the past and the present, predict the future, and identify relevant risks and opportunities. For example, we analyze the internal and external drivers of growth and profitability and how these drivers interact with the customer experience in the short, medium and long-term. We build econometric models of dynamic systems, using our world class data tools, formalizing problems using rigorous science to solve business issues and further delight customers. We are open to hiring candidates to work out of one of the following locations: Arlington, VA, USA | Bellevue, WA, USA | Boston, MA, USA | Los Angeles, CA, USA | New York, NY, USA | San Francisco, CA, USA | Seattle, WA, USA | Sunnyvale, CA, USA
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